灰色预测GM1_1模型
源代码：引用 @ 红嘴海鸥
functiongmcal=gm1(x)
sizexd2 = size(x,2);
%求数组长度
k=0;
for y1=x
k=k+1;
if k>1
x1(k)=x1(k-1)+x(k);
%累加生成
z1(k-1)=-0.5*(x1(k)+x1(k-1));
%z1维数减1，用于计算B
yn1(k-1)=x(k);
else
x1(k)=x(k);
end
end
%x1,z1,k,yn1
sizez1=size(z1,2);
%size(yn1);
z2 = z1';
z3 = ones(1,sizez1)';
YN = yn1'; %转置
%YN
B=;
au0=inv(B'*B)*B'*YN;
au = au0';
%B,au0,au
afor = au(1);
ufor = au(2);
ua = au(2)./au(1);
%afor,ufor,ua
%输出预测的a u 和 u/a的值
constant1 = x(1)-ua;
afor1 = -afor;
x1t1 = 'x1(t+1)';
estr = 'exp';
tstr = 't';
leftbra = '(';
rightbra = ')';
%constant1,afor1,x1t1,estr,tstr,leftbra,rightbra
strcat(x1t1,'=',num2str(constant1),estr,leftbra,num2str(afor1),tstr,rightbra,'+',leftbra,num2str(ua),rightbra)
%输出时间响应方程
%******************************************************
%二次拟合
k2 = 0;
for y2 = x1
k2 = k2 + 1;
if k2 > k
else
ze1(k2) = exp(-(k2-1)*afor);
end
end
%ze1
sizeze1 = size(ze1,2);
z4 = ones(1,sizeze1)';
G=;
X1 = x1';
au20=inv(G'*G)*G'*X1;
au2 = au20';
%z4,X1,G,au20
Aval = au2(1);
Bval = au2(2);
%Aval,Bval
%输出预测的A,B的值
strcat(x1t1,'=',num2str(Aval),estr,leftbra,num2str(afor1),tstr,rightbra,'+',leftbra,num2str(Bval),rightbra)
%输出时间响应方程
nfinal = sizexd2-1 + 1;
%决定预测的步骤数5这个步骤可以通过函数传入
%nfinal = sizexd2 - 1 + 1;
%预测的步骤数 1
fork3=1:nfinal
x3fcast(k3) = constant1*exp(afor1*k3)+ua;
end
%x3fcast
%一次拟合累加值
fork31=nfinal:-1:0
if k31>1
x31fcast(k31+1) = x3fcast(k31)-x3fcast(k31-1);
else
if k31>0
x31fcast(k31+1) = x3fcast(k31)-x(1);
else
x31fcast(k31+1) = x(1);
end
end
end
x31fcast
%一次拟合预测值
fork4=1:nfinal
x4fcast(k4) = Aval*exp(afor1*k4)+Bval;
end
%x4fcast
fork41=nfinal:-1:0
if k41>1
x41fcast(k41+1) = x4fcast(k41)-x4fcast(k41-1);
else
if k41>0
x41fcast(k41+1) = x4fcast(k41)-x(1);
else
x41fcast(k41+1) = x(1);
end
end
end
x41fcast,x
%二次拟合预测值
%***精度检验p C************//////////////////////////////////
k5 = 0;
for y5 = x
k5 = k5 + 1;
if k5 > sizexd2
else
err1(k5) = x(k5) - x41fcast(k5);
end
end
%err1
%绝对误差
xavg = mean(x);
%xavg
%x平均值
err1avg = mean(err1);
%err1avg
%err1平均值
k5 = 0;
s1total = 0 ;
for y5 = x
k5 = k5 + 1;
if k5 > sizexd2
else
s1total = s1total + (x(k5) - xavg)^2;
end
end
s1suqare = s1total ./ sizexd2;
s1sqrt = sqrt(s1suqare);
%s1suqare,s1sqrt
%s1suqare残差数列x的方差s1sqrt 为x方差的平方根S1
k5 = 0;
s2total = 0 ;
for y5 = x
k5 = k5 + 1;
if k5 > sizexd2
else
s2total = s2total + (err1(k5) - err1avg)^2;
end
end
s2suqare = s2total ./ sizexd2;
%s2suqare 残差数列err1的方差S2
Cval = sqrt(s2suqare ./ s1suqare);
Cval
%nnn = 0.6745 * s1sqrt
%CvalC检验值
k5 = 0;
pnum = 0 ;
for y5 = x
k5 = k5 + 1;
if abs( err1(k5) - err1avg ) < 0.6745 * s1sqrt
pnum = pnum + 1;
%ppp = abs( err1(k5) - err1avg )
else
end
end
pval = pnum ./ sizexd2;
pval
%p检验值
%arr1 = x41fcast(1:6)
%预测结果为区间范围预测步长和数据长度可调整程序参数进行改进
:hug:很好正好用得着 谢谢:(:) 不错，很好 不错，很好 感谢楼主 怎么下载不了，楼主~ shoucangle ,xiexie nice
huideyuce
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